Trouble Brewing
If you’re worried about Trump’s tariffs, you aren’t alone.
Trump’s most severe tariffs don’t begin until early April, but the impact of his import taxes are already being felt. 72% of Americans are worried about the economic impact of tariffs, including 57% of Republicans.
Trade partners like China, Canada, and Mexico are retaliating. Markets are declining, costs are rising, and local businesses are bracing for impact. Even Trump isn’t ruling out the possibility of a recession.
North Carolinians could be among the hardest hit. A new study found that North Carolina is the second-most vulnerable state to tariffs on the European Union. 45% of North Carolina’s imports are from the EU, and the cost of these products will spike.
Demand for North Carolina products will also drop. In 2023, North Carolina exported $7.7 billion in goods to Canada and $5.8 billion to China. The cost of these products will also inflate, causing trade partners to purchase less of them, and North Carolina businesses to see a drop in sales.
You don’t need to look too hard to see the local impact of Trump’s trade war. In honor of St. Patrick’s Day, let’s take beer as an example.
My local brewery typically has about 30 beers on tap. Monday, they had somewhere around 10.
I thought it was a sign that they were doing good business, but it was just the opposite. The Asheville based brewery was hit hard by Hurricane Helene. Their warehouse flooded, carrying away their materials and finished products with rushing water. They won’t be up and brewing again for months, so in the meantime, they’ve resorted to purchasing their product back from other businesses, even borrowing vats and other production supplies from nearby breweries.
To make matters worse, they’re bracing for the impact of tariffs. Roughly 75% of the profit for small breweries comes from beer that’s sold in cans. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum means that those cans are about to become a hell of a lot more expensive.
Unfortunately, glass bottles won’t solve the tariff problem. The cost of malt, an essential ingredient for brewing beer, will rise since it’s largely imported from Canada. These are costs that larger businesses could potentially absorb, but local businesses cannot even imagine taking on.
Regardless of whether or not you love beer, this situation will hurt the economy of our entire state. There are 407 craft breweries in North Carolina– 9th most in the country. Those breweries generate over $2.3 billion in economic activity.
Businesses will close, employees will get laid off, tax revenue will decrease, schools will go underfunded, potholes won’t get filled. And this is just one example of an industry– an industry largely driven by small businesses and working class people– that will be impacted.
Contrary to Trump’s view, trade wars involve very real, very painful consequences for everyday people. And while we’re currently the ones left paying the price, MAGA Republicans should know that we’ll remember this pain when we’re at the ballot box next November.
