Early Vote Analysis 

November 4th, 2024 

As of November 4th, the America Votes coalition has collectively executed 4.6m door attempts, 7m phone attempts, and 11m texts throughout the state of North Carolina. Our partners have had conversations with 1.7m North Carolinians on the phone or at the door. 

This incredible direct voter contact program, which has been executed by c4 non-profit organizations, quadruples the efforts from past election cycles. This coordinated effort was a result of a year of planning to turn North Carolina blue, with two primary goals:

  • Increase Democratic support among white voters from Biden’s 33% performance in 2020 to 37-38% in 2024.
  • Increase turnout among Black voters from 68.4% in 2020 to at least 70% in 2024. 

As of November 4th, 2024, we have reason to believe that we will accomplish both the support and turnout goal for North Carolina. We believe that more of our voters will cast a ballot on Election Day, and there will be an impactful number of Republican voters deflecting. 

Black Voter Turnout: 

After the first week of early vote, there was a nervousness about lagging voter turnout for Black voters. Today, we feel confident in saying Black voter turnout is on track to match or exceed 2020 levels.

  • At the close of early vote on Saturday, around half of the state's registered Black voters have voted, leaving over 750,000 more Black voters who could vote on Election Day. 
  • Of those, 35% have some history of voting on Election Day instead of during the early vote period.
  • Another 20% have registered since 2020, so we have no indication of their presidential voting method preference. 
  • In our own internal polling conducted in mid-October, we found Black enthusiasm at 86% and in the latest Marist poll, 38% of Black registered voters say they will vote on E-Day (compared to 26% of white voters).
  • If a third of the yet to vote voters show up on Election Day (250k), Black voters will match their 2020 turnout of 68%. If 40% of them show up (300k voters), we will hit the 70% turnout goal which we have targeted to win.

Women Voters:

There is a surge in women voters, which we have sound reason to believe is a good sign for Democrats. 

  • Women are 53.9% of registered voters, but they make up 55.7% of voters who have already cast a ballot. 
  • Among likely conservatives, women are 50% of those who have already voted. Among likely progressives, women are 62% of those who have already voted. Among mid-range partisans, women are 55% of those who have already voted. 
  • That 55% could be particularly promising. We have been communicating directly with these voters since the spring on the issue of reproductive care, which is particularly salient in NC since the legislature enacted a 12-week ban last year after  Dobbs. 
  • In the latest Times/Siena poll we see 55% of women, and 39% of white people, supporting Harris for President in NC. That support number for Harris is encouraging as our goal is to increase Democratic support up to 38%. 
  • Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, anti-choice candidates have failed time and again. Bottomline: White suburban women voting is a good sign for the Democrats. 

Young Voters:

  • In 2020, 45% of voters under the age of 30 voted early. This year, 40% of registered young voters turned out during early voting. 
  • In the recent Marist poll, 34% of voters under 35 said they are voting on Election Day, compared to 29% of voters over 35. 
  • Similarly, 35% of Gen Z and millennial voters said they are voting on Election Day, compared to 19% of Baby Boomers who said they were voting on Election Day. 
  • Bottomline: We are 5 pts under our 2020 turnout with a third of those voters saying they are going to vote on Election Day. 

Republican Turnout:

We expected Republican turnout to be high because of the intensely loyal following the former president has managed to amass. However, there is no evidence that Republicans will be able to sustain this level of enthusiasm without Trump on the ballot. In fact, when other candidates have tried to emulate Trump's brand of bombast and extreme policy, like Mark Robinson, they have fallen flat.

We also see signs of Trump’s anxieties in his own campaign and program. Trump is hosting four rallies in North Carolina in these final days, and an affiliated PAC announced a $20 million spend in swing states, including North Carolina, claiming Trump would not support a federal ban on abortion. 

There has been speculation that the surge in Republican early vote numbers equals a cannibalizing of the E-Day turnout. There could be merit to this argument, but we are focused on communicating with voters in these final hours. We can win this thing if we continue to work the plan, and turn out our people.